031008_sintesi settembre

In September, the Italian stock market achieved new highs for the year on share indices and recorded a significant growth in trading volumes on all markets. Particularly notable were stock options, which equalled the annual high recorded in March, as well as stock futures, futures on the Mib30 and the miniFIB.

In September, the Mib index was characterised by an initial growth phase, which reached its peak on Friday 19 September when the new high for 2003 was set at 18,876 (the highest level since August 2002 and an increase of 11.3% since the end of 2002). However, it closed the month at 18,057, a fall of 1.7% on the end of August. Since the annual low on 12 March, the upswing has been 21.5%. Overall growth since the end of 2002 is 6.5%.

The Nuovo Mercato Numex index was affected by a similar trend: on Thursday 4 September, it set a new high for the year peaking at 1,609 (the highest level since 2 December last year), up by 23.0% on the end of 2002, but then closed the month at 1,497, a monthly fall of 2.0% and a rise of 14.4% on 2002.

The continuous indices grew at substantially similar rates: Mibtel -2.0% (+5.5% compared with the end of 2002), S&P/Mib -2.5% (+4.7%), Mib30 -2.8% (+3.7%) and Midex -0.3% (+15.2%). The MibSTAR index confirmed its defensive characteristics, with a better performance than the general index (+1.8%), bringing its growth since the end of 2002 to 7.3%.

In Europe, despite the general scenario of negative trends (FTSE Eurotop -3.8%, Euro Stoxx 50 -6.3%), the Italian market, together with the Swiss (-1.6%) and the British (-1.8%), was one of the few markets to stem the decline whereas other markets recorded more notable falls: Stockholm -3.3%, Paris -5.3%, Madrid -5.7%, Frankfurt -6.5% and Amsterdam -6.9%.

The three macrosectors achieved slightly different performances in September: Financial -0.8%, Industrial -3.9% and Services -0.6%, which, compared with the end of 2002, represented a rise of +14.6% for Financial and +4.9% for Services and a fall of -3.2% for Industrial.

Those S&P/Mib index shares that achieved the best performance in September were Bnl (+21.4%), Bulgari (+13.5%) and Capitalia (+13.3%) whilst those recording significant losses include Tiscali (-10.7%) and Finmeccanica (-10.4%). Compared with the end of 2002, positive figures have been achieved by Capitalia (+74.4%), Bnl (+64.6%) and Bulgari (+57.6%) whilst those posting negative results are Eni (-13.2%), Tim (-7.3%) and Fiat (-4.6%). In the first nine months of 2003, of the 40 shares comprising the index, 32 show positive results and 5 are negative. For the three newly admitted companies (Autostrade, Banche Popolari Unite and Seat Pagine Gialle), it is not possible to calculate the performance.

Volatility rose again from the lows of August to reach 11.1% for the Borsa (where the STAR segment volatility remains significantly lower at 7.2%) and 21.1% for the Nuovo Mercato.

The capitalisation of domestic listed companies in September amounts to €450.4 billion, representing 34.5% of GDP. In detail, a breakdown of the markets shows the Borsa with a figure of €438.4 billion, the Nuovo Mercato at €7.2 billion and the Mercato Ristretto at €4.8 billion.

Eni proved to be the listed company with the highest capitalisation (€52.6 billion), followed by Tim (33.8), Enel (32.6), Unicredito Italiano (25.7), Generali (24.9) and Telecom Italia (22.0).

The list was affected by the merger by incorporation of Autostrade with Newco28, with the simultaneous delisting of the first company and the admission for trading of the second company which has taken over the name of the merged entity. The number of listed companies therefore remains at 280. In detail, the listed companies include 224 on the Borsa (including 6 foreign companies), 44 on the Nuovo Mercato (2 foreign) and 12 on the Mercato Ristretto.

In September, the capital increase operations for Aisoftware (ordinary shares) and Banca Popolare Emilia Romagna (convertible bonds) were concluded. Before the auction of unexercised rights, these raised a total of €4.5 and €325.9 million respectively. The percentage of unexercised rights was respectively 9.9% and 1.4% of the shares offered. The month also saw Meliorbanca carry out a capital increase operation with no charge and the conclusion of the subsequent tender offer launched by BC Partners for Seat Pagine Gialle, ordinary shares in which 0.07% of the shares was handed over raising a total of €1.3 million.

In September, trading in shares recorded a daily average of 171,900 contracts and a turnover of €2.94 billion, both above the figures for August (+38.1% for contracts, +43.6% for turnover).

In the first nine months of the year, the daily average was 149,500 contracts and turnover of €2.68 billion (-2.4% and +9.3% on the corresponding period in 2002). In detail, the daily average was 155,400 contracts and €2.88 billion for shares listed on the Borsa (+37.7% and 44.3% on August, +5.2% and +21.8% on September 2002) and 16,100 contracts and €63.4 million for Nuovo Mercato shares (+42.0% and +18.3 on August, +80.3% and +203.8% on September 2002). The significant rise in trading on the Nuovo Mercato has brought the daily average to its highest levels since last December.

The average size of stock contracts (Borsa, daytime trading) bounced back up from €17,800 in August to €18,800, slightly below the average for the current year (€19,300).

STMicroelectronics was the most traded share in the month in terms of turnover, with 21.2% of total trading, followed by Eni (8.3%), Tim (7.8%) and Telecom Italia (7.3%).

Trading in covered warrants also grew significantly in terms of turnover (daily average €56.3 million, +77.2% on August) and traded contracts (17,200 per day, +33.6% on August). The figure for turnover is the highest since September 2002.

After hours trading recovered strongly from the previous month, with a daily average of 6,100 contracts (+68.6% on August and +3.4% on September 2002) and turnover of €36.6 million (+67.9% and 48.6%), setting a new high for the year. In the period January-September, the daily average was €27.6 million and 5,100 contracts.

ETFs, traded since the end of September 2002, recorded a daily average of 288 contracts in this month (new historical high) and €6.8 million turnover. The average size of contracts fell once again to €23,400, reflecting the growing participation of retail investors.

Trading in fixed-income securities on the MOT experienced a clear recovery: for Government securities, the daily average jumped to €544 million (+39.2% on August) and to €31.5 million (+43.8%) for private bonds. In the period January-September 2003, the daily average for trading in Government securities reached €510 million, whilst the average for private bonds was €36.7 million. The EuroMOT also saw an increase in trading, with a daily average of €13.9 million (+52.0% on August and +9.2% on September 2002). In the period January-September 2003, average daily turnover was €14.9 million, +60.8% compared with the corresponding period last year

Trading in equity derivatives on the Idem also experienced a clear upswing in September, helped by the quarterly maturity of index futures. Futures on the Mib30 recorded a daily average of 18,800 standard contracts (+74.3% on August); the MiniFIB bounced back up to 10,300 standard contracts per day (+37.5% on August) and options on the Mib30 achieved an average of 9,100 standard contracts (+19.6%). Trading in stock futures grew to an average of 1,200 standard contracts per day (+85.5% on August, +291.2% on September 2002), whilst stock options equalled the high for the year recorded in March with 38,500 standard contracts per day (+53.0% on August, +32.6% on September 2002). In aggregate terms, the monthly figure of 78,000 standard contracts per day reflects an increase of 50.7% on the previous month.

In the first nine months of the year, the daily average of the Idem was 73,200 standard contracts, an increase of 9.9% on the corresponding period in 2002. Of particular note is the growth recorded by the miniFIB (11,000, +38.2%), by stock futures (2,100, +484.2%) and by stock options (32,000, +9.0%).

Milan, 8 October 2003