(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 13 mag - The global oil market is likely to remain in deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026, as demand may swing back to growth towards the end of the year if a deal is reached to end the war that allows flows through the through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume from the third quarter, but supply will be slower to recover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast in its May oil report.

According to the report, which assumes that flows will gradually resume in the third quarter, "with global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period." The IEA noted that global observed oil inventories drew by 129 million barrels (mb) in March and by a further 117 mb in April, according to preliminary data.

The IEA expects that global oil demand will contract by 2.4 million barrels a day (mb/d) in the second quarter and by 420,000 barrels a day for the year as a whole, 1.3 mb/d less than its pre-conflict forecast.

On the demand side, refiners have reduced runs and sharply scaled back crude imports, the IEA said.

"For now, the steepest losses are seen in the petrochemical sector where feedstock availability is becoming increasingly constrained. Aviation activity is also running well below normal levels, helping to ease some of the pressure on jet fuel prices, which nearly tripled after Middle Eastern exports were cut off. Higher prices, a deteriorating economic environment and demand-saving measures will further weigh on global oil consumption." Meanwhile, global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total losses since February to 12.8 mb/d, the IEA said. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels, although higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Hormuz Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in.

2026, to 102.2 mb/d, the IEA said.

(RADIOCOR) 13-05-26 11:56:21 (0336) 5 NNNN