(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 28 apr - In March, the median inflation expectation over the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% and for over the next three years to 3.0% both compared with 2.5% in February, according to the latest inflation expectation survey released by the European Central Bank.

The fieldwork for the survey was carried out between March 5-30 March 2026 among around 19,000 adult consumers from 11 euro area countries.

Inflation expectations for five years ahead also increased in March, to 2.4%, from 2.3% in February.

Consumers' nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in March compared with February, at 1.2%. Meanwhile, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.1%, from 4.6% in February. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 4.1%, from 3.5% in February, the highest level since May 2023, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expecting slightly higher spending growth expectations than those in the highest two quintiles.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, decreasing to -2.1% in March, from -0.9% in February. Also, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% in March, from 10.8% in February. As observed in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.7%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.7%).

Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.7% over the next 12 months, compared with 3.6% in February.

As in previous months, home price growth expectations in the lowest income quintile (3.9%) remained higher on average than in the highest quintile (3.6%).

Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 4.9% in March, from 4.7% in February. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.5%), while.

higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.3%).

(RADIOCOR) 28-04-26 11:03:13 (0297) 5 NNNN